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The Euro continued to firm against rival currencies Wednesday as German business sentiment was reported to be better than expected, leading traders to believe that the Eurozone economy may be recovering faster than previously believed. The Pound finished the day mixed against rival currencies, as did the Japanese Yen. The USD continued to show weakness, falling broadly against rival currencies. The weakness of the USD combined with bullish technical momentum to see gold continue higher, though it fell short of the $1,200 an ounce level. Oil pared early losses that came due to an eleventh consecutive week of U.S. crude inventory increase, rallying strongly at the end of the session as Saudi Arabia and its allies attacked Yemen and caused concerns over Mid-East supply disruptions.
Daily Currency Pair Analysis
– The pair moved higher to test the 1.1000 level once again, and while it did finish higher, it was unable to break through the resistance at this level. The trading range for the day was tight, remaining stuck between 1.0900 to the downside and 1.1000 on the upside. We are beginning to think that the pair can break above this resistance level, especially if we continue to see good economic news from both the EU and the U.S. If we see a break above the 1.1000 level we would expect to see the pair head up to the 1.1200 level to test resistance there.
– The pair headed lower during the day, breaking below the 119.50 level finally, so we should see a move to test support at the 119.00 level itself, perhaps today. One concern is the escalating violence in the Middle East, which could cause a rally in the Yen on safe haven buying. Such safe haven buying could see the pair head as low as the 116.00 handle given time, though we don’t believe that the pair will break below that level. On the other hand, economic data from the U.S. has been good recently, which should begin to strengthen the USD once again as traders increasingly come to think of interest rate hikes this summer.
– The pair traded flat along the 1.2500 level on Wednesday, showing how strong this support level is, as oil prices rallied by 3.6% during the day. While more downside is possible, we see something of a floor at the 1.2400 level, where there is strong support. Oil may continue to rally considering the unrest in the Mid-East, but we still don’t believe that it can exceed the resistance at the $54 a barrel level, which would keep any decline in this pair muted.
– The pair tried to rally during the day, but was unable to maintain most of the gains and ended back below the 1.4900 level while also creating a small shooting star. The inflation data from the U.K. continues to worry traders, and an increase in potential summer rate hikes for the U.S. should see the pair continue to move lower, with the 1.4700 level as a solid support for the pair. It now looks as if the pair is in a consolidation range reaching from 1.4700 on the downside up to 1.5000 on the upside.
– Gold continued to track higher as bullish technical momentum and weakness from the USD has been supporting the rise in gold. The market moved right up to the $1,200 level on Wednesday before drifting back to close below this key resistance level. If the market can finally break above the $1,200 level we think it will continue slightly higher, but then pullback to test $1,200 as support, perhaps moving into some sideways consolidation for a period of time. Of course we have gotten an increase in Mid-East tensions, and this should prove positive for gold, so we could see the precious metal head higher to test resistance around the $1,240 level on this geo-political tension.
– The crude market rallied strongly late in the day on news that Saudi Arabia and its allies had launched an attack on Yemen. The news caused concerns over a disruption of Middle Eastern oil supplies, sending crude as high as $52 a barrel before it pulled back slightly from this resistance level. Crude could be getting ready to make a serious test of the $54 a barrel level, which has been strong resistance. If we break through the resistance we could see oil headed to the $58 a barrel level, though as soon as this supply side event disappears oil is likely to drop back below the $50 a barrel handle.
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