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Daily Market Reviews
Economic Calendar for January 31, 2017
Time (GMT)
Currency
Event
Previous
Forecast
All Day
CNY
Bank Holiday
Tentative
JPY
Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative
JPY
BOJ Outlook Report
Tentative
JPY
BOJ Policy Rate
-0.10%
-0.10%
06:30
JPY
BOJ Press Conference
08:00
EUR
ECB President Draghi Speaks
10:00
EUR
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
1.1%
1.5%
10:00
EUR
Prelim Flash GDP q/q
0.3%
0.4%
13:30
CAD
GDP m/m
-0.3%
0.3%
14:45
USD
Chicago PMI
54.6
55.1
15:00
USD
CB Consumer Confidence
113.7
112.6
22:35
CAD
BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
Global Market Overview
The Euro was mostly weaker on Monday, falling against major global rival currencies. The Pound was even weaker than the Euro however as it fell broadly for a third consecutive session on concerns over the impact of a hard Brexit on the U.K. The USD was mostly stronger for the day even though traders are worried about the impact of the immigration ban being imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. The Yen firmed broadly as a risk-off day in markets caused demand for the safe haven currency to jump. Gold snapped a four session losing streak, gaining modestly in response to safe haven demand. Crude fell below the $53 a barrel level as data once again showed the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased, causing worries that supply of crude will outstrip demand.
Daily Currency Pair Analysis
EUR/USD
– The pair fell hard during the European session, coming almost to the 1.0600 level before finding support and reversing during the North American session. Even so, the pair was lower at the close as it was unable to retrace all of the earlier losses. The pair did find itself unable to retake the 1.0700 level by the close of the session, ending the day just a few pips below that swing level. We’ve seen the pair struggle with the 1.0700 level in the past week and previously in early December, and it looks as if the strong resistance remains in place. Longer term this means that the downtrend for this pair remains in place, and we should see lower levels in the coming weeks.
USD/JPY
– The pair dropped on Monday as safe haven demand boosted the Yen broadly. The drop took the pair back down through the 114.00 level, but it did finish the day off its session lows and back up at the 113.75 level that has been attractive for the pair over the past two weeks. With President Trump remaining somewhat unpredictable in investor’s eyes it is likely we will see this pair continue to trade back and forth around this level as traders struggle with a strengthening U.S. economy and likely higher interest rates later this year on one hand, and the uncertainties and safe haven demand being caused by President Trump on the other.
USD/CAD
– The pair bounced back and forth over the 1.3100 level on Monday, unable to establish direction. It eventually closed the day slightly lower than the open, but still above the 1.3100 level. The lower close was a bit surprising as we had crude moving lower for the day, which should push this pair higher, and we also had a broadly stronger USD. It appears that traders are betting on strong GDP data from Canada Tuesday, which was supportive for the Canadian dollar on Monday.
GBP/USD
– The pair tried to recover Monday, but made it to less than one pip above the 1.2600 level before reversing direction and falling solidly for the session, giving it a third consecutive session of losses. By the close the pair was back below the 1.2500 level, unable to recover from its trip below that support level. This could mean we will soon see the pair trading back down to the 1.2400 level, but it is questionable if traders will remain bearish enough over the Pound to send it back to the 1.2200 level.
Commodity Update
Gold
– Gold gained for the first time in five sessions on Monday, rising in response to the weakness seen in U.S. equities as well as signs of rising inflation in the U.S. Traders are also becoming cautious ahead of a raft of economic data due out this week, and the two day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The move higher was modest, and gold remains below the $1,200 handle, but today’s small gain was an improvement over the past week, in which gold fell 1.4% in response to renewed strength from the U.S. dollar.
Oil
– Crude fell back beneath $53 a barrel on Monday after Baker-Hughes reported that active U.S. oil rig counts increased. The number of rigs continues to climb, causing concern among traders that increased production in the U.S. will both offset any OPEC production cuts, as well as outstripping crude demand. Still, crude remains mired in the range of $51 to $53 a barrel that we’ve seen for the commodity over the past six weeks as traders can’t decide if OPEC cuts will have more impact, or if rising U.S. production will turn out to be more important.
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