Daily Market Reviews

Economic Calendar for June 14, 2017

 

 

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
02:00 CNY Industrial Production y/y 6.5% 6.4%
08:30 GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.4% 2.4%
08:30 GBP Claimant Count Change 19.4K 12.5K
08:30 GBP Unemployment Rate 4.6% 4.6%
12:30 USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
12:30 USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
12:30 USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30 USD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.1%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.3M
18:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
18:00 USD FOMC Statement
18:00 USD Federal Funds Rate <1.00% <1.25%
18:30 USD FOMC Press Conference

 

Global Commentary

 

Asian markets began Tuesday session flat following a second consecutive overnight decline on Wall Street, but investors in the region soon shook off the woes being experienced in the techno as it finished the day 0.05% lower, although it was well off its session lows at the close.  In South Korea the Kospi added 0.71% as it bounced off its worst daily loss in three months and Singapore’s Straits Times Index advanced 0.28%.  European markets ended broadly higher as technology shares rebounded from their two session stumble.  The Stoxx Europe 600 finished the day with a 0.55% gain, with the German DAX adding 0.59% and the CAC 40 in France advancing 0.40%.  London’s FTSE was 0.15% lower, falling for the fifth session in a row as political concerns lingered and the Pound was broadly firmer.  U.S. markets ended broadly higher Tuesday on the back of a rebound in technology shares, with the S&P 500 and Dow both recording new record closes.  At the close the S&P 500 was up by 0.45%, the Dow gained 0.44%, and the Nasdaq rising 0.73%.

 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro gained modestly against the USD and Yen on Tuesday, but fell substantially versus the Pound as the British currency staged a recovery.

GBP – The Pound firmed broadly against rival currencies on Tuesday, despite lingering political concerns in the U.K.

USD – The USD firmed modestly against the Yen on Tuesday, but fell versus the Euro and Pound, despite an almost unanimous belief that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates at the conclusion of their monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

JPY – As geopolitical uncertainties have declined, so too has safe haven demand for the Yen, which meant that the Japanese currency ended Tuesday session broadly softer versus rivals.

TRY – The Lira softened against the Pound on Tuesday as the British currency showed broad based strength.  Against other major currencies the Lira was nearly unchanged however, after bouncing back and forth in a tight range throughout the session.

RUB – The Ruble suffered a choppy trading session that saw it finishing firmer against the Yen and USD, but softer against the Pound, and unchanged versus the Euro.

Commodities

Metals – Precious metals fell for the fifth session in a row, with traders expecting the Federal Reserve to announce an interest rate hike at the conclusion of their monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.  August gold fell by $3.00, or 0.3% to close at $1,265.89 an ounce.  Meanwhile, July silver slumped $0.163, or about 1%, to finish at $16.78 an ounce.

Oil – Crude gained for the third session in a row Tuesday as traders were expecting the U.S. to report a drop in crude inventory levels for the week.  July WTI crude rose $0.38, or 0.8%, to settle $46.46 a barrel.

 

Indices

 

S&P500 – The S&P looked as if it would remain around unchanged levels in the morning, but it later picked up momentum as technology shares began a recovery.  This lifted the S&P in the afternoon, with the broad based index finishing at a new closing high as it added 0.45% for the session.

 

DAX – The DAX climbed at the open and then traded in a tight range for the remainder of the day as a recovery in the technology sector helped lift the German benchmark index.  The DAX pared some gains late in the session, but was still able to post a 0.59% gain for the day.

Nikkei – The Nikkei opened in the red, but by mid-morning had recovered to trade into positive territory as Japanese investors shook off the overnight weakness in technology.  The gains were short-lived however, with the Nikkei dropping back into the red by the lunch break.  The afternoon saw the market turn sideways as it remained in a tight trading range for the remainder of the day and finished with a slight loss of 0.05%.


Stocks

British Petroleum – Shares of the integrated oil and gas producer remain in a range bound trade, with a low around $33 a share and a high near $38 a share over the past 12 months.  The weakness in crude has done nothing to help the share price of BP, which closed Tuesday’s session at $36.03 a share.  Given the range bound nature of the stock chart we are looking for moves near the $33 level and trading bounces off that level.  If the stock were to fall below the $33 level we would begin to get more bearish over the stock, although we think there is a floor at the $29 level.  The only way that floor might be broken is if crude trades back below $40 a barrel and stays there, and this isn’t a likely scenario given recent developments for the crude market.